The Global Carbon Project has released a study indicating that global carbon emissions are projected to fall slightly in 2026—despite no significant progress in climate policy or clean energy deployment.
According to the research, this decline is primarily driven by elevated energy prices resulting from geopolitical instability following the United States' military action against Iran and subsequent supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil, Gas, and Coal Emissions Trends
Emissions from oil dropped by 1.9% in 2026, while natural gas saw a reduction of 0.3%. However, coal emissions continued rising at approximately 0.6%, highlighting inconsistent trends across fossil fuel types.
The study's co-author Glen Peters, scientist at CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway, explained: 'It's downwards, which sounds good, but this is largely driven by the war in Iran, what's happened in the Strait of Hormuz.' He added that such a drop does not represent structural change and thus lacks long-term significance.
Context of Previous Emissions Drops
This marks the third time global carbon pollution has declined recently—previously during the 2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic. In both cases, emissions rebounded as economies recovered, indicating temporary rather than sustainable reductions.
Peters emphasized that a true decline would require a 'structural shift' where emissions rise to a peak before gradually declining—a trend absent this year. Instead, oil emissions rose prior to plunging sharply by about 2% in one year.
Renewable Energy Contributions
While solar panels, wind farms, and electric vehicles have contributed positively to emission reduction efforts, their impact was insufficient on its own to offset overall increases in carbon pollution.
The study's co-author Pierre Friedlingstein of the Global Carbon Budget Office stated: 'The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies.'
Overall Emissions Still Rise Despite Fossil Fuel Drops
Despite reductions in fossil fuel emissions, total global CO₂ emissions still increased by about 1% in 2026. This rise is attributed primarily to land use changes—including deforestation and peat fires—which intensified faster than any gains from reduced fossil fuel burning could compensate for.
The findings were published as world leaders convened at the United Nations' COP31 climate conference in Turkey.