Kenyan residents fear deadly floods amid rising risk from El Niño
Agnes Shikoli lives in Kibera, one of Kenya’s largest informal settlements near Nairobi's Ngong River. She recalls that her home was flooded up to halfway along its six-foot corrugated iron wall in March. 'It flooded up to here,' she says, pointing to a spot on the wall. A broken TV in the corner remains as evidence of earlier flooding.
The incident claimed the life of her sister Beatrice Khalayi, aged 58, who died during intense rains that caused widespread destruction in Kibera. According to Shikoli, someone informed her that her sister had been electrocuted after her house filled with water. The photo of her sister is kept far from view by Shikoli, saying: 'When I see it, I feel uneasy.'
El Niño forecast and climate warnings
Kenya’s meteorological department warns that November typically marks peak rainfall for its short rainy season—lasting October through December.
A regional forecast issued by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) in September indicated an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026. This event has been compared to the severe weather conditions seen during the 1997–1998 El Niño due to similar sea-surface temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Weather forecaster Jemima Gacheru from the BBC explains: 'We have a very strong El Niño already in play in the Pacific, and we also have a positive Indian Ocean dipole—often called the "Indian Niño"—which results in enhanced rainfall over several parts of Kenya.'
Nairobi’s drainage crisis
The Nairobi County disaster management chief, Bramwell Simiyu, tells the BBC that the city's drainage system was developed 30 years ago to serve about 2.5 million residents but now serves up to 7 million during daytime hours.
'The existing drainage system has been untouched for many years,' says Simiyu. 'Removing rubbish from drains is critical—it could save lives.' He notes that blocked sewers and drains were major contributors to fatalities earlier this year when heavy rains overwhelmed infrastructure.
Simiyu estimates that between 5,000 households (about 20,000 people) and as many as 100,000 individuals in low-income settlements are at risk of flooding. Most affected areas include Kibera and Mathare—informal communities where houses sit just meters from rivers or on river slopes due to settlement expansion.
Flood response and relocation plans
The Nairobi River Basin Regeneration programme found that weak enforcement of regulations near rivers increases flood risks. It recommends establishing a 'buffer' zone around rivers and implementing 'humane relocation' for vulnerable communities.
If forced to evacuate, residents will be moved to 167 designated holding grounds. These sites will provide relief food and supplies according to Simiyu.
Despite these measures, there is little sign that either the national government or Nairobi City Council can raise the estimated $192 million needed to fully upgrade sewerage and drainage systems across the city.
The United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM) has warned that nearly 900,000 people in Kenya could face displacement due to predicted flooding this year—mostly from flood-related threats in informal settlements near rivers.