Lead
In a global environment of uncertainty, Kerstin Hottner, head of commodities at the Swiss investment firm Vontobel, has reiterated her view that oil prices will not fall below $100 per barrel this year. In a statement published on El País' website, Hottner asserts that the market is in an escalation phase, in which prices will not decline due to immediate supply or demand factors, but will remain elevated due to structural and climatic reasons.
According to her analysis, the oil market is not in a correction phase, but rather in a consolidation phase of high prices, driven by sustained demand in key sectors such as transport, industry, and energy. Hottner emphasizes that although there are factors that could reduce prices in the short term, such as a possible slowdown in economic activity, these would not be sufficient to cause a significant drop in oil prices in 2026.
Contextualization of the oil market in 2026
The oil market in 2026 is at a critical transition point. Although global economic recovery has shown signs of stability, fuel demand remains high, especially in regions such as Europe and Asia, where heavy transport and manufacturing industries require large volumes of diesel. This structural demand, combined with natural gas reserves shortages, has generated sustained pressure on oil prices.
Moreover, the global commodities market has shown a trend toward stable high prices, rather than sharp fluctuations. This stability is due to the absence of a significant new supply center, such as a new refinery or production expansion in key regions. Oil production in the Middle East, for example, remains high, but without significant changes in production levels, limiting the market's ability to reduce prices internationally.
The role of diesel in structural demand
Diesel is one of the most in-demand fuels in the current market. Its use is fundamental in heavy transport, such as trucks, ships, and industrial machinery. In Europe, where heavy transport demand has increased due to the expansion of logistics networks and the movement of goods, diesel has become a key component of energy expenditure.
Hottner points out that, despite some sectors potentially reducing their consumption in response to high prices, demand for diesel in critical sectors such as freight transport and logistics has not shown any signs of decline. This is because these sectors do not have viable alternatives in the short term, especially in regions where heavy transport infrastructure is extensive and well-developed.<\/p>
Moreover, diesel is a fuel that cannot be easily replaced by renewable energies in many scenarios. Although there have been advances in the use of biofuels and clean energy, their capacity to meet current demand is limited. For example, biofuels produced in Europe still represent less than 5% of total diesel demand, and their production depends on agricultural factors that are not scalable at a global level.<\/p>
The impact of climate on the gas and oil market
One of the key concerns expressed by Hottner is the state of natural gas reserves in Europe. In 2026, the European continent will face a situation of low gas availability, primarily due to a reduction in stored reserves and low production in certain countries. This scarcity has placed additional pressure on the energy market, leading to greater reliance on oil as an alternative energy source.<\/p>
In this context, Hottner believes that the winter of 2026 in Europe will be mild, allowing European nations to avoid a severe gas shortage. This assumption is crucial to his analysis, as a cold winter could trigger massive demand for gas for heating, which in turn could lead to a shortage and drive up oil prices as a substitute.<\/p>
European winter climate has been a decisive factor in energy market behavior over the past few years. For example, in 2023, a cold winter in Europe caused a rise in gas prices on the European market, which in turn placed pressure on oil prices. In 2025, the climate was warmer, reducing gas demand and allowing oil prices to remain stable. Hottner considers that this pattern could repeat in 2026, especially if climatic conditions remain stable.<\/p>
Structural factors that support high prices
High oil prices in 2026 are not the result of a single cause, but rather stem from a combination of structural factors. Among them are the lack of new supply sources, dependence on key markets such as the Middle East, and rising demand in industrial sectors.<\/p>
Oil production in the Middle East, which accounts for more than 40% of global supply, has shown stability in production levels. Although some countries have announced expansion plans, these have not materialized in the short term. Moreover, production in regions such as the Persian Gulf and northern Africa has been affected by geopolitical tensions, which has generated uncertainty in the market.
Another factor is the lack of viable alternatives to fossil fuels. Although emerging technologies such as solar and wind energy exist, their capacity to meet the energy demand in heavy sectors such as transportation and industry remains limited. The infrastructure necessary to integrate these energy sources into the current energy system is not fully developed, especially in regions where transportation infrastructure is extensive.
Implications for the market and for consumers
Hottner's outlook has direct implications for consumers and for companies dependent on oil. For end users, such as truck drivers or logistics companies, high diesel prices can significantly increase their operational costs. This could affect the competitiveness of certain sectors, especially in markets where transportation costs represent a significant portion of the final product's price.
For companies, high oil prices can exert pressure on their profit margins. However, many industries have developed strategies to mitigate these effects, such as optimizing routes, adopting more efficient technologies, or switching to alternative fuels. Although these solutions are not fully effective, they represent an effort to adapt to a more expensive energy market.
In the financial sector, investors have begun to reevaluate their positions in energy assets. Some funds have reduced their exposure to oil, while others have increased their positions, based on the belief that high prices are a structural trend, not a temporary anomaly. This reevaluation reflects a greater understanding of the energy market as a complex system, where prices are influenced by multiple interrelated factors.
Future perspectives and possible scenarios
For the year 2027, the energy market is expected to continue with high price structures, although with possible fluctuations. If the climate in Europe remains stable, gas reserves could remain sufficient to avoid an energy crisis. In this scenario, oil prices could stay near $100 per barrel, without significant drops.<\/p>
On the other hand, if adverse climatic conditions occur, such as an intense cold winter, a gas shortage could take place, leading to an increase in oil prices. This scenario, although less likely, would represent a high-risk situation for the energy market. In that case, prices could exceed $120 per barrel, affecting all sectors dependent on fossil fuels.<\/p>
In the long term, the transition toward clean energy will continue to be a gradual process. Although advances in energy storage technologies and energy efficiency are important, they are not yet ready to fully replace oil in key sectors. Therefore, oil prices will remain a key variable in the energy market over the coming years.<\/p>