Ministers are expected to make steep cuts to the UK government’s electric vehicle (EV) sales targets this week, in a development that will relieve automotive manufacturers but alarm many Labour MPs concerned about the government’s climate agenda.
Policy Background
The current zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate requires carmakers to achieve an 80% EV sales target by 2030 under rules introduced during the previous Conservative administration. By 2035, all new cars and vans must be fully zero emission.
This policy is projected to deliver nearly 14% of the UK's pledged emissions reductions between 2028 and 2032 — making it one of the most significant decarbonisation measures in place.
Government Consultation and Internal Debate
In August, the government launched a review into the ZEV mandate with five options: maintaining current targets; extending flexibilities to 2034 while keeping the 80% target; reducing interim sales goals to 70%, 60%, or 50%.
The consultation sparked internal disagreement across Whitehall. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds advocated for cutting the 2030 target as far as possible, proposing a reduction to 50%. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander supported an adjustment to around 60%, while energy officials including Ed Miliband and Miatta Fahnbulleh maintained that the original 80% benchmark should be preserved.
Final Decision and Leadership Role
Louise Haigh, de facto deputy prime minister, is expected to finalise the decision after a key meeting at Downing Street on Wednesday. Government sources indicate she will likely approve a revised 2030 EV sales target of approximately 60%, with flexibilities extended until 2034.
Haigh has reportedly told colleagues that such reductions would not be repeated in future, suggesting an end to ongoing negotiations over the mandate’s scope.
Reactions from MPs and Stakeholders
Lizzi Collinge, Labour MP for Morecambe and Lunesdale, stated: "The upcoming decision on the ZEV mandate will have a huge climate impact, possibly the biggest one that's on the PM’s desk. But it will also set the direction for tackling the cost of living and helping get our energy prices down over the coming decade."
Catherine Fookes, MP for Monmouthshire, said: "We need the ZEV mandate to stay, and Rosebank to be rejected." The reference is to proposed development of the Rosebank oilfield.
A government spokesperson affirmed: "The government is united in its commitment to the ZEV mandate and no decisions have been taken. We are committed to the phaseout of all new cars relying solely on petrol and diesel engines by 2030, and to 100% of new car and van sales being zero emission by 2035, and our legally binding net zero targets. Our consultation on the mandate will not change this, and will ensure we are taking a pragmatic and balanced approach to the ZEV transition."
Industry Concerns
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported that battery electric vehicle (BEV) share in new car sales reached only 26.6% after ten months of the year — falling short of the government’s annual target of 33%. The SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said: "The gap between demand and mandated targets continues to widen. Meaningful change to the trajectory, alongside expanded flexibilities throughout the regulation, is essential to bridge that gap, safeguard jobs and investment while keeping the UK’s zero emission transition on track."
Environmental and Infrastructure Impact
Shane Brennan, CEO of ChargeUK, warned that weakening the mandate puts £1.7bn in EV charging infrastructure at risk, affecting associated employment and supply chains. He added: "Charging investors’ confidence will be rocked by a third change in three years. Government should be in no way complacent about the long-term implications of being seen to cave to the short-term interest of global car importers."
Paul McNamee, director of the Labour Climate and Environment Forum, said: "Significant weakening of the ZEV mandate from the current 80% targets will be seen as a rowing back on climate leadership. If the government does this, it undermines its credibility on environmental policy."
Contextual Timing
The decision comes just before Andy Burnham prepares for his first COP summit as prime minister, where he and Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband are expected to promote electrification globally.