President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has unveiled his re-election manifesto, titled From Reform to Prosperity, ahead of Nigeria's general election scheduled for January 2027.
Economic Reforms and Household Impact
The plan includes targets such as achieving 6% annual economic growth by 2031, recruiting an additional 78,000 security personnel, and constructing 200,000 affordable homes. It builds on reforms initiated during Tinubu’s first term—most notably the removal of fuel subsidies, harmonisation of foreign exchange rates, and tax adjustments.
According to Joshua Osiyemi of Tracka, a platform run by BudgIT Foundation, these measures were introduced in response to Nigeria's deteriorating fiscal situation at the time of his inauguration in May 2023. 'That manifesto was trying to get Nigeria back on its feet,' he said.
The impact has been significant but painful: fuel prices rose sharply, leading to widespread inflation across consumer goods. A survey conducted by Tracka found that most Nigerian families struggle to survive on just 10,000 naira ($7.40) per day—a sum many consider insufficient for basic living expenses.
Analysis from Nigeria’s International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR) shows imported rice prices increased by 184% between May 2023 and October 2025. Staples such as beans, garri, and bread also saw substantial price hikes.
Some Signs of Improvement
In a limited positive development, SBM Intelligence reported an 11.5% drop in the cost to prepare jollof rice—its sharpest decline since launching its Jollof Index in 2016—between June and September 2026. Ikenna Okonkwo, head of research at SBM Intelligence, noted that 'Nigerians spend more and more of their income on basics,' indicating ongoing financial strain despite macroeconomic indicators improving.
Nigeria’s headline inflation fell from 34% in 2024 to 14% in September 2026 according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The gap between official and parallel exchange rates has also narrowed. Tinubu claimed that removing fuel subsidies freed up over one trillion naira ($740 million) within two months—though critics argue this does not offset broader economic hardship.
Security Challenges Remain
Tinubu proposes recruiting an additional 28,000 military personnel and 50,000 police officers to address insecurity, particularly in northern Nigeria where farming communities face threats from jihadist groups, kidnap gangs, and herder-farmer conflicts.
'The security situation is more complex than just recruiting more soldiers,' said Okonkwo. 'It involves deep-rooted social tensions and the fear of violence that affects daily life.' Many farmers report they no longer feel safe returning to their farms due to fears for personal safety.
Opposition Response
Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar has publicly criticised Tinubu’s fuel subsidy removal, stating: 'My position stands! I will restore subsidy to make life easier and affordable for Nigerians.' He made this statement on X (formerly Twitter).
Osiyemi noted fiscal constraints may limit such a reversal: Nigeria's 2026 budget is approximately 68.32 trillion naira, with over 15.8 trillion allocated to debt servicing—leaving little room for reversing economic policies that have already been implemented.
Election Context
p>With just two months before the January 2027 election, cost of living and insecurity remain central concerns among voters. Tinubu has pledged to reduce fuel prices and lower youth unemployment if re-elected—but he has denied any intention of reinstating subsidies, stating it would not be a return to previous policy.The administration also announced a 125 billion naira intervention package aimed at supporting small businesses—including grants and loans—for manufacturers and entrepreneurs.
Opposition candidate Peter Obi, leader of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), has placed national unity and security as top priorities in his 'A New Nigeria is Possible' campaign agenda—emphasising that such issues must be addressed before any political transformation can succeed. His platform reflects growing public concern over both economic stability and safety across regions.