The Ethiopian national army has seized control of most main towns in Tigray’s capital area, Mekelle, less than two weeks after hostilities resumed between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal forces.
What Happened After Fighting Began
Fighting erupted in late September amid a resurgence of conflict that began with the 2020–2022 civil war. The TPLF, which had governed Tigray for decades, clashed directly with Ethiopia’s National Defence Forces (ENDF). Within days, pro-government troops advanced into Mekelle, where they encountered little resistance as the TPLF reportedly made what it called a 'strategic withdrawal' from key urban centers.
The BBC reports that hundreds of people were killed during this brief phase—many by drone strikes and air force bombing raids—raising concerns about civilian casualties and human rights violations. Residents in Mekelle describe daily life as severely disrupted: businesses are nearly non-existent, financial resources remain scarce, and morale is low.
Official Statements on the End of Conflict
Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF official who has since joined the prime minister’s advisory team, declared that the war had ended and emphasized stabilizing the region should now be the priority.
In contrast, Mikael Asgedom, spokesperson for the TPLF, denies any defeat. He describes the withdrawal not as an admission of loss but as a deliberate tactical move to isolate federal forces in central Tigray and prepare for future resistance. According to him, 'we chose not to fight on terms favourable to the enemy.' The TPLF also claims it continues to conduct attacks against Ethiopian military positions across several locations following its retreat from towns.
Analysis: Why the TPLF May Be Weakening
Cameroon Hudson, an African peace and security analyst, attributes the rapid decline of the TPLF’s position to multiple factors:
- The group has lost popular support within Tigray;
- It is internally fragmented;
- It lacks advanced military technology compared with the ENDF;
- Many senior officers have defected or been arrested; and
- Internal infighting has weakened command structures.
Abraha Hailezgi, a scholar at Mekelle University, adds that over recent years, the army associated with the TPLF has become linked with coercion, forced recruitment, and arbitrary actions. As a result, many residents now view it as an adversary rather than a defender of their interests.
Ongoing Fighting Reported in Central and Northern Tigray
Residents across central and northern parts of Tigray report continued hostilities involving heavy artillery and drone strikes. Eyewitnesses near Sheraro—a town close to Eritrea—say they have heard sustained artillery fire recently. A businessman speaking anonymously says military convoys from both sides are moving toward Sheraro, while another motorcycle operator in Yechila reports that checkpoints remain active.
The presence of troops linked with Ethiopia’s federal army—and those accused of serious abuses during the 2020–2022 conflict—has rekindled fear among residents. Many describe seeing soldiers as a painful reminder of past atrocities, reopening deeply traumatic memories.
What Comes Next?
Military sources aligned with the ENDF assert operations against TPLF forces continue and claim their capabilities are being steadily degraded. However, analysts like Ethiopian commentator Yared Tibebu suggest unrest may persist for some time.
Tibebu believes that given the TPLF's history of protracted armed struggles, it is likely preparing to resume offensive actions once its military and political structures have been rebuilt. He notes internal divisions within the group could delay such moves—but this view has been dismissed by TPLF officials as an overstatement.
The BBC reports no verified information from inside Tigray due to severed communication lines during initial fighting. As internet and phone services were restored after hostilities began, residents’ accounts now provide a more detailed picture—though still limited in scope and subject to local bias or unverified claims.
While federal authorities assert that the conflict is effectively concluded, evidence of ongoing operations suggests otherwise. The situation remains fluid: whether the war ends with military control or evolves into another phase of violence depends on developments yet to be confirmed.