Australia will not receive nuclear submarines from the United States under the Aukus agreement, according to former Labor foreign affairs minister Bob Carr.
Carr, who served as foreign affairs minister during Julia Gillard’s and Kevin Rudd’s governments, stated that officials in both Canberra and Washington are aware that the US will never build or sell nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. Describing the $368 billion Aukus pact as 'a living lie' — a 'platonic lie', he said — Carr claims it has been reduced to a diplomatic fiction with no realistic prospect of delivering operational vessels to Australian waters.
What the Deal Actually Entails
The agreement, signed in 2021, involves collaboration between Australia, the United States, and the UK on advanced submarine technology. It includes plans for the development of a bespoke SSN-Aukus vessel expected to come online by 2042. However, under current conditions, only US-built Virginia-class nuclear submarines are scheduled to arrive in Australia starting in 2032, at intervals of four years.
Carr asserts that even within Australia’s defence establishment, there is growing doubt about whether the deal serves national interests. He notes increasing awareness of budgetary strain across other defence platforms due to heavy investment concentrated in one project — one that may be outdated given new military insights from conflicts such as Ukraine.
Concerns Over Strategic and Financial Risks
The Aukus plan has drawn criticism for its potential strategic exposure. In early November 2026, a crowdfunded public inquiry led by former Labor MP Peter Garrett and former chief of defence Admiral Chris Barrie concluded that the initiative represents 'the worst, riskiest and most costly defence decision ever made' by an Australian government. The report warned Australia could face entanglement in conflict with China if it proceeds without sufficient safeguards or alternatives.
Carr’s remarks align with those of other former ministers including Gareth Evans and Malcolm Turnbull, who have also expressed skepticism about the deal's viability and long-term benefits. However, the Albanese government continues to defend Aukus as progressing according to plan, citing President Donald Trump’s pledge of full support for the project.
Financial Commitments and Infrastructure
To date, Australia has paid over $3 billion toward US submarine manufacturing — part of a total commitment of approximately $4.6 billion under the agreement. Additional billions are being spent on infrastructure development, workforce training, and construction projects across the country.
The defence minister, Richard Marles, recently reaffirmed that Aukus is 'absolutely happening', calling it 'the biggest industrial project in our country's history' and stating it marks 'a leap in military capability since the establishment of the navy more than a century ago'. He emphasized its role in securing national safety and creating thousands of high-skilled jobs nationwide.
Controversy Over Future Submarine Access
Carr maintains that American-operated submarines will instead be based at Australian facilities. He suggests future US presidents may determine that China’s growing naval power makes it impractical to transfer three or more Virginia-class nuclear subs — especially given their strategic positioning near key maritime routes.
The agreement requires presidential approval for any submarine transfers, subject to domestic demand within the US Navy. As such, no actual delivery of vessels is guaranteed under current conditions. The absence of a clear timeline or mechanism for operational deployment remains a central point of contention among critics and analysts alike.